Posted: 11/26/2014 12:01:00 AM MST
WASHINGTON - Consumers across most of America will see their health insurance premiums go up next year for popular plans under President Barack Obama's health care law.
But it will take time for families to figure out the best bang for their budgets - even as a bigger political battle brews over the program's future. For many, government subsidies will cushion the hit.
And there's a new factor: Returning customers who are savvy about health insurance and prepared to shop for a better deal.
Scott Joens of St. George, Utah, said he and his wife are facing premium increases of about 18 percent for 2015. But instead of agonizing, he's looking for a plan with a higher deductible, the amount of medical expenses for which consumers are responsible before insurance kicks in. By switching, he could lower his monthly premiums.
Joens, in his 50s and semi-retired from the pharmacy business, said he'll worry if the trend keeps going.
'It's not a major hardship,' he said. 'But I still have some years until I am on Medicare. My worry is by the time I'm 65, who knows where this will be?'
Experts say numbers alone don't tell the story.
'How all this shakes out will depend on one big wild card,' said Larry Levitt of the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. 'Will current enrollees become savvy shoppers or just sit back and stay in their current plans? This is a new program with no precedent, so there's no way to predict exactly what will happen.'
In a departure from the process that officials followed last year, the administration has not released its own analysis of 2015 premiums. Instead, it published raw data, leaving it to independent experts to parse the numbers.
Analysts have focused on 'silver' plans, the coverage level picked by about two-thirds of the customers on HealthCare.gov and state-run health insurance markets. They are rated on four levels - platinum, gold, silver and bronze.
A study from the market analysis firm Avalere Health found that premiums for the lowest-cost silver plan will go up by 10 percent on average across the country.
A Kaiser Foundation study focussed on the second-lowest-cost silver plan in every county, finding that premiums are going up in 59 percent of counties nationwide, down in 34 percent and remaining flat in 7 percent.
Eighteen percent of counties will see an increase of more than 10 percent. At the other end of the spectrum, 13 percent of counties will see a decrease of more than 10 percent.
The rise isn't too far out of line with what's happening to employer-sponsored plans, in which costs are expected to rise 4.6 percent on average next year, according to a recent survey from benefits consultant Mercer. Some will go down, Levitt said.
That's what Robert Glenn of Charleston, S.C., found. The premium for his gold plan dropped by $17 for 2015. Nonetheless, Glenn re-evaluated his options and picked a middle-of-the-road silver plan instead, lowering his monthly premium $104 from what he is currently paying.
'I see the forces of capitalism and competition working this year,' said Glenn, a psychiatrist in his early 30s who's an independent contractor. 'I know I am just one of millions of people affected ... but 'Obamacare' is working for me.'
Stephanie Baechle, a nanny from Columbia, Mo., says she's not happy. Although she's in her 20s - a desirable demographic for insurers - her current plan is being canceled. The alternative she's being offered costs $15 a month more, and the copay is higher. On top of that, her doctor is not in the new plan.
'As a supporter of the Affordable Care Act, I am extremely disappointed in what is happening,' said Baechle, who said she's considering not signing up for insurance and instead paying the fine levied against those who go uncovered.
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